Agricultural production declines due to bad weather in Western Canada
Wheat yields are forecast to decline 34.8% year over year to 22.9 million tonnes in 2021. Average yields are estimated at 37.2 bushels per acre.
The decrease in wheat area is largely attributable to spring wheat which, in addition to having less area seeded in 2021, was affected by drought conditions.
Durum wheat yields are also expected to drop significantly, while winter wheat, which is primarily grown in Ontario, is expected to produce yields in line with historical averages thanks to better growing conditions in the province.
In Saskatchewan, harvested area of wheat is forecast to drop 7.9% to 11.8 million acres, while yields could decline 33.8% to 30.4 bushels per acre, lowering total production wheat of 39.1%.
Wheat yields in Alberta are forecast to decline 41.0% to 32.9 bushels per acre in 2021, while harvested area is expected to fall 7.0%.
Wheat production in Manitoba is forecast to fall 24.1% to 4.0 million tonnes, due to higher area harvested and lower yields.
Lower expected yields push canola production to its lowest level since 2012.
Nationally, canola production is forecast to fall 24.3% to 14.7 million tonnes in 2021, while yields are expected to hit a decade-low level of 29.2 bushels per acre.
Saskatchewan canola production is forecast to decline 32.8% to 7.4 million tonnes. Alberta is expected to produce 14.0% less canola for a total of 4.5 million tonnes. Canola yield in Manitoba is expected to drop 14.5% to 35.4 bushels per acre.
Barley and oat production
Barley production is forecast to fall 27.0% year-on-year to 7.8 million tonnes in 2021. Despite a higher harvested area, lower yields due to hot and dry conditions are expected. reduce national production.
Oat production is forecast to fall 32.9% to 3.1 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to decline 14.2% to 2.8 million acres and yields are expected to drop to 71.4 bushels per acre in 2021.
Maize is the odd crop with an expected increase on higher yields.
Nationally, grain corn production is forecast to increase 0.8% to 13.7 million tonnes in 2021. Yields are forecast to increase to 158.4 bushels per acre.
The September 14 report will use the same method as today’s information, but will include data up to August 31.
Final estimates of harvested area will be released on December 3 based on the November farmer survey.
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