Gatherings for central bankers and military leaders

This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Sign up here to receive the newsletter straight to your inbox every Sunday

Hello and welcome to the working week.

It seems like the time has come for central bankers to come together and think about ways to get their economies out of a global inflationary crisis. So thank goodness the European Central Bank‘s annual Forum on Central Banking, a gathering amid the palaces of the pretty Portuguese town of Sintra to discuss the challenges of monetary policy in a rapidly changing world: a title which, according to organizers, was only recently agreed given the, uh, fast-changing world that Eurozone economies now face. Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, World Trade Organization chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are among the top speakers.

Geopolitical summits are once again in the spotlight this week. NATO will meet in Madrid on Tuesday for three days of talks, including its expansion following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Among the topics of deliberation are maintaining support for Ukraine, strengthening partnerships and keeping the door open, and strengthening transatlantic unity.

It also happens to be the week of Ukraine’s Constitution Day, a public holiday for the country marking the founding of an independent state in 1996.

Speaking of separation, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to explain in detail on Tuesday how she plans to hold a second independence referendum. Read Robert Shrimsley’s excellent opinion piece to understand why Sturgeon chooses to do this now. The future of Britain is the subject of a conference taking place in London, organized jointly by the Tony Blair Institute and the Britain Project, a cross between a campaign group and a think tank.

Of course, the reorganization of countries is a contentious matter as will no doubt be debated on Friday, the 25th anniversary of the UK’s handover of Hong Kong to China. The story of journalist-turned-political activist Claudia Mo, told powerfully in this weekend’s FT Magazine, recalls the battles fought and ultimately lost by those who sought to maintain the city region’s autonomy over the past quarter century – although that won’t stop protesters from taking to the streets on Friday.

This week will also see the next installment in the UK’s summer of discontent with lawyers who stepped down on Monday in ongoing protests against legal funding cuts – although the Department of Justice questions that, claiming criminal legal aid is growing by £135m a year. Postal workers can follow lawyers on the picket lines as the Union of Communications Workers this week sends ballots for industrial action to more than 115,000 of its members.

Need a little lighter entertainment? Well, it’s a good week for big sporting tournaments with the start of the Wimbledon fortnight and the Tour de France, which this year starts in Copenhagen. The FT has also released its list of summer reading recommendations.

Thank you again for your messages regarding this newsletter. If you haven’t commented yet or want to say more about what is and isn’t worth mentioning, email me at [email protected]

Economic data

Reports on consumer confidence, inflation and gross domestic product updates this week will give an indication of the effectiveness of the various monetary policy tightening measures in play, and will no doubt give Sintra’s central bankers.

Swedish and Hungarian central bankers are making interest rate decisions this week.

Companies

A quieter week for daily business announcements. The largest earnings announcements all come from the United States. Investors in Nike, the global sports brand, may be more interested in the management team than the numbers. Felicia Mayo, head of diversity at Nike, will leave the company at the end of next month after just two years in the role.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • European Central Bank’s annual Central Banking Forum opens in Sintra, Portugal

  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders Data for May

  • Results: Nike Q4

Tuesday

  • France, consumer confidence figures

  • Germany, consumer confidence figures

  • Hungary, interest rate decision

  • United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics publishes the first results of the 2021 census in England and Wales

  • United States, monthly figures for consumer confidence and the house price index

Wednesday

  • Germany, provisional figures for the consumer price index (CPI)

  • Japan, May Trade Figures

  • Spain, flash inflation and retail sales data

  • Sweden, Riksbank monetary policy meeting

  • UK, British Retail Consortium Store Price Index

  • UK and EU chief Brexit negotiator Maroš Šefčovič to speak at Bloomberg headquarters in London on EU-UK partnership

  • United States, first quarter GDP figures

  • Results: General Mills Q4

Thursday

  • Canada, April GDP data

  • EU, May unemployment figures

  • France, Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May and CPI data for June

  • Germany, June unemployment figures, May import prices plus May retail trade data. Also, the speech of the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, during the first meeting of the Simone Veil Pact, organized by Renew Europe.

  • Italy, May unemployment figures plus May PPI data

  • Japan, May industrial production data

  • UK final Q1 GDP figures and consumer trends report, plus June house price data from Nationwide

  • Results: Walgreens Boot Alliance Q3

Friday

  • China, France, Italy, UK, US: Caixin and S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Data

  • The ECB will end its long-running bond-buying programme, part of stimulus measures introduced a decade ago, to help tackle stubbornly high inflation

  • EU, inflation flash figures in June

  • Italy, May CPI data

  • Japan, monthly unemployment rate

  • United Kingdom, consumer credit figures

  • United States, construction spending statistics

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

  • UN Ocean Conference, co-hosted by the governments of Kenya and Portugal, begins in Lisbon

  • UK, The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in south-west London amid controversy over the banning of Russian players

  • In the UK, lawyers from the Criminal Bar Association go on strike in a growing dispute with the government over the funding of trials. The walkout by criminal defense lawyers is likely to cause widespread disruption to court hearings in England and Wales.

Tuesday

  • France, the new National Assembly holds its first session after the results of the June 12 legislative elections created a hung parliament — read Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch newsletter (premium) for a fuller explanation. Additionally, Australia’s new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is due to travel to Paris to “reset” relations with France after tensions erupted over an abandoned submarine deal.

  • Spain, the NATO summit in Madrid begins with the heads of government of its 30 member countries expected and discussions will focus on the candidacies of Sweden and Finland to join the military alliance. 2022 marks the 40th anniversary of Spain’s membership in NATO.

  • Ukraine, Constitution Day marking the anniversary of the signing of the Constitution of Ukraine in 1996

  • UK, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan hosts the State of London Debate at the O2 in Greenwich and the Henley Royal Regatta begins on the River Thames

  • American and British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell is to be sentenced after being found guilty in a sex abuse trial

Wednesday

  • Belgium, the Ommegang festival, including a show recreating the historic entry of Charles V, begins in Brussels

  • UK, the Climate Change Committee releases its 2022 progress report to Parliament, assessing the UK’s chances of reaching net zero by 2050. Additionally, another strike threat looms with a Vote for industrial action at Royal Mail over plans to cut 542 frontline delivery managers as part of wider restructuring.

Thursday

  • Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, son and namesake of the famous late dictator, takes office as the country’s new president

  • UK, the Future of Britain conference, organized by the Tony Blair Institute to discuss progressive solutions to the country’s problems, begins in London

Friday

  • Brazil takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council for July

  • Canada Day, a federal holiday commemorating the formation of the union of British North American provinces that created Canada in 1868

  • Denmark, the Tour de France begins in Copenhagen. It will end on the Champs-Élysées in Paris on July 24.

  • EU, the Czech Republic takes over the six-monthly EU Presidency

  • Hong Kong, 25th anniversary of the return of the former colony from British rule to Chinese rule

  • India, annual Rath Yatra, or Chariot, Hindu festival

  • Rwanda, national day commemorating independence from Belgium

  • Somalia, national holiday commemorating the creation of the country from British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland

  • UK deadline for WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to appeal decision to extradite him to US to face espionage charges

Saturday

  • Italy, The Palio di Siena, Italy’s most famous (and controversial) horse race, takes place in the street of Siena’s Piazza del Campo

  • United Kingdom, 50th anniversary of the Pride in London parade

  • In the United States, World UFO Day is on the anniversary of the Roswell Incident in New Mexico in 1947

Sunday

  • Belarus, Independence Day

  • UK, 134th annual Wenlock Olympics – said to have inspired the modern games – begin in Wenlock, Shropshire

Trade secrets — Essential reading on the evolution of international trade and globalization. register here

The road to healing — The impact of Covid on the global economy, markets and businesses. register here

Comments are closed.