Little change for two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic »Yale Climate Connections



There isn’t much new to report on the two Atlantic Tropical Disturbances we tracked this week in the Atlantic – 96L off the coast of North Carolina and 95L in the Central Tropical Atlantic. Both are still expected to become tropical lows or tropical storms within the next couple of days, but there is no rush to do so.

Disturbance 96L off North Carolina

An area of ​​disturbed weather, designated 96L, was about 150 miles northeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks early Friday afternoon, moving northeast at about 15 mph. Satellite imagery showed that 96L had a wide and elongated circulation, but no well-organized surface circulation. The intense thunderstorm activity in the system was relatively modest and shifted northeast of the center by strong windshear of 15 to 25 knots caused by upper winds from the southwest.

96L has decent model support for development through Saturday night as it moves northeast at 15 mph, staying a few hundred miles off the US east coast. Conditions are marginally favorable for development, with sea surface temperatures of around 28 degrees Celsius (82 ° F), a mid-level humid atmosphere with relative humidity of around 70% and moderate to moderate wind shear. high from 15 to 25 knots.

By Saturday night, 96L is expected to cross beyond the northern limit of the Gulf Stream, where the waters are colder than 25 degrees Celsius (77 ° F). Wind shear will also increase to 30-40 knots, ending 96L’s chances of becoming a named storm. The directing currents favor a runway a few hundred miles off the coast of the Canadian Maritime provinces, and 96L is expected to shift to a powerful extratropical storm that could bring 40 mph winds and rain one to two inches southeast of Earth. -New Sunday. The steering currents are expected to collapse on Monday, causing a slow and erratic 96L shift a few hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland for several days. In its tropical weather forecast for Friday at 8 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center gave 96L a 70% 2-day and 5-day development probability. The next name on the Atlantic storm list is Odette.

Little change at 95L in the central tropical Atlantic

A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic, midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands at 8 a.m. EDT Friday morning, moved west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Satellite imagery showed the 95L to be more organized than Thursday, with more defined circulation, but the system had a relatively lean area of ​​severe thunderstorms and seemed to struggle with dry air.

95L, with favorable development conditions expected throughout the weekend, has modest model support for development. From Friday to Sunday, the disturbance will have sea surface temperatures near 28-28.5 degrees Celsius (82-83 ° F), predominantly moderate windshear of 10-20 knots and a moderately humid atmosphere with a average relative humidity of 55. -65%. These conditions should allow the system to transform into a tropical depression by Sunday. However, the 95L is expected to face a major obstacle to further intensification by Monday evening, when it reaches the Leeward Islands, due to a broad low pressure trough aloft. This trough is expected to have high windshear and dry air, and many model predictions indicate that 95L is destroyed when it meets the trough. In its tropical weather forecast for Friday at 8 a.m. EDT, the NHC reduced the odds of development from 95L in 2 and 5 days to 60% and 70%, respectively, down 10% from Thursday’s odds. The next name on the Atlantic storm list after Odette is Peter. The first 95L hurricane chaser mission is scheduled for Sunday morning.

Bob Henson contributed to this article.

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