Still deja vu? CCP, liberals fought hard battle with smaller parties ready to make a difference

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NDP nibbles Liberal support while PPC does the same with the CCP


September 18, 2021 – Canada’s 44th election campaign concludes its final round. With the little time left to influence voters, the two main parties largely end up where they left off at the end of the last election.

The Liberals and Conservatives are separated by very little daylight, fighting for the edge in a race that may now depend on factors they do not fully control: voter turnout and the performance of other parties.

New data from the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute finds the two main parties in statistical equality (32% CPC, 30% Liberal). For the Liberals, this represents a drop from 36 percent voter support at the start of the campaign, although the party maintains a strong position on the Ontario battlefield.

The CCP’s traditional strongholds of support in the Prairies remained strong, and burgeoning support in British Columbia further bolstered its fortunes.

That said, Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are feeling the pressure, due to increased support for the New Democratic Party and the emergence of the People’s Party of Canada.

More key findings:

  • The Liberal Party has lost double-digit support among men over 54 (-14) and women over 54 (-11) since the campaign began in early August. The CPC lost the share of voting intentions among men under 55, but increased it among those 55 and over.
  • The Green Party appears poised to regress significantly from 2019, currently garnering just 3% support after receiving 6.5% in the last election. Meanwhile, the People’s Party seems poised to improve.
  • For more information on where and how to vote, visit the Elections Canada website here.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation created to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating statistical data, research and policy analysis to the public. accessible and impartial on economics, political science, philanthropy, administration, national and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

Liberals, conservatives in statistical equality

What has been a tight election campaign for weeks is heading into election day in a statistical tie between the two parties vying to form the government. The Conservatives (32%) and Liberals (30%) both garner the support of three in ten of determined voters, while one in five say they will vote for the NDP.

Despite starting from a position of strength, the Liberal Party’s fortunes have plummeted since peaking at 36% in mid-August earlier this year. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in particular struggled to answer why the election took place in the first place and may be more vulnerable to what could be a stronger result for the NDP, which ended the 2019 campaign with 16% of the popular vote.

The Conservative Party, meanwhile, is ending its campaign close to where it started, with the intention of voting 32% of Canadians. Leader Erin O’Toole has earned the esteem of her own supporters in recent weeks, but has struggled to gain the favor of others and extend the party’s appeal beyond her traditional base. The situation for the Conservatives in Ontario is remarkable, where they are behind the Liberals by six points, but have seen popular support in that province for the PPC increase to five percent.

While the NDP has made inroads in Alberta, Manitoba and Atlantic Canada, its share of the popular vote remains relatively stable at one in five Canadians (20%). As previously stated, this would be a better result than the one the party enjoyed in 2019.

The Bloc Québécois, for its part, has also remained stable and currently sits at seven percent of national voting intention, and one-third (31%) in Quebec. This despite a debate in English that some have suggested galvanized supporters of the cause of the Bloc.

Among the small parties, the Greens have never managed to regain the momentum they found in the previous elections and to end this campaign at 3%. Although excluded from the federal leaders’ debates, Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada has gained momentum in these latter stages of the campaign and now sits at five percent thanks to big gains in the Prairies.

The terrain changed in the main provinces of the battlefield after a month of campaigning. The Liberals abandoned what was a narrow three-way race in British Columbia, while the Conservatives found some separation between Singh and the NDP. In Quebec, the Bloc closed a six-point gap during the campaign to be tied with the Liberals. Yet Trudeau’s party enjoys a variety of supporters in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives hold their ground in Alberta and Saskatchewan:

The Conservatives’ campaign won them some ground among the top voting demographics. O’Toole’s support among men aged 55 and over has reached a majority level since the election began. Only one in five of that demographic say they will vote for Trudeau, down from one in three at the start of the campaign. The Liberals also lost ground among women 55 and older, although they still enjoy the support of a plurality of this age-sex group:

Survey methodology:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from September 15 to 18, 2021 with a representative random sample of 2,042 adult Canadians who are members of Angus Reid’s Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was sponsored and paid for by ARI.

For detailed results by age, gender, region, level of education and other demographics, Click here.

To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.

To read the questionnaire, click here.

CONTACT WITH THE MEDIA:

Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 [email protected] @shachikurl

Dave Korzinski, research director: 250.899.0821 [email protected]


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