The K7RA solar update

12/24/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity has been path this week, and that was reflected in the activity on the air, particularly over 10 meters. If only the ARRL 10-Meter Contest took place a week later! The average daily number of sunspots has jumped 100 points – from 24.4 last week to 124.4 in the reporting week of December 16-22. The average daily solar flux increased from 82.9 to 125.

The planetary average A index fell from 5 to 9.1 and the average mid latitude A index from 3.9 to 6.4.

It was great to see images of the sun covered in speckles online.

The solar flux forecast over the next week looks quite promising, with a daily solar flux above 100 until the end of the year, then surpassing 100 from January 16 to 22. But the outlook released on Thursday, December 23 was not as optimistic as that released a day earlier.

Flux values ​​are forecast at 130, 125, 120, 115 and 113 from December 24 to 28; 110 from December 29 to 30; 85 on December 31; then 83, 81, 80 and 81 from January 1 to 4; 82 from January 5 to 6; 83, 86, 90 and 92 from January 7 to 10; 95 from January 11 to 12; 96 on January 13 – 15, jumping to 115 on January 16 – 17; 114, 111 and 110 from January 18 to 20; 108, 102 and 95 from January 21 to 23; 90, 88, 87 and 85 on Jan 24-27, then drop to a low of 80 on Jan 30 before rising above 90 after the first week of February.

The forecast planetary A index is 20, 12, 16, 8, 10 and 12 from December 24 to 29; 8 from December 30 to 31, then 5 from January 1 to 8; 8 and 5 from January 9 to 10; 10 from January 11 to 12; 5 from January 13 to 14; 8, 12, 18, 12 and 8 from January 15 to 19; 5 from January 20 to 22; 8, 10, 8 and 8 from January 23 to 26 and 5 from January 27 to February 4.

These observations from JK Janda, OK1HH:

“Unlike meteorologists, for example, we do not have reliable models of the behavior of the Sun and subsequent changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, we did not expect the current increase in activity. On the other hand, we can see them as another promise of a higher solar cycle 25 maximum.

“Most of the spots are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, M-class flares are seen in both hemispheres, solar flux has gone from the lowest to the highest in 2 weeks, and the solar wind speed has increased. increased in 10 days.

“The geomagnetic activity only increased slightly, but only after the point activity moved towards the western half of the solar disk. These changes were mostly favorable to the RF propagation conditions. Before the start of the ascent, the 18 MHz band was regularly open for DX contacts, while more recently the 21 MHz band has opened relatively reliably.

“Following the eruptions of the previous days, the activity of the Earth’s magnetic field is expected to increase around December 24 and probably again on December 27.

“Before the end of the year, a significant increase in solar activity is expected before it picks up around mid-January.”

Thanks to KH6CP for This article on the new WindCube satellite:

W9NY wrote from Chicago:

“Even though conditions were disappointing for most of the ARRL 10-meter weekend, there were sporadic openings all over the United States from my location in Dune Acres, and for a few minutes at a time, signals from the Colorado and California areas were very strong. I have also worked at several stations in South America, but only in Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

“On Sunday 12/19/10, 10 really opened up for a while. I first heard a W6 beacon in the morning arrive at S-9 and not another signal on the tape. After a CQ of 28.420, I started a long series of contacts in the late morning, and again in the middle of the afternoon. Some West Coast stations operating at just 100W at the dipoles were getting 20dB on S-9, just like in the good old days.

“I made some contacts over 12 meters as well. I heard nothing over 6 meters.

“I look forward to using my MFJ Loop 10 yards from Miami Beach for the first 3 months of 2022.”

KA3JAW monitors 11 meters for sporadic E’s. On December 23, he wrote:

“On Wednesday 22 December there was a sporadic 6 hour multi-hop transatlantic E-event in Western Europe over 11 meters, from 1326 to 1929 UTC. The solar flux index reached its highest point in the current solar cycle at 140. This was due to nine sunspot groups; 2907, 2908, 2909, 2911, 2912, 2915, 2916, 2917 and 2918.

“Sunday December 19 saw a crazy sporadic single and multi-jump 8 hour by 11 meter E-day from 4:23 pm December 19 to 12:37 am December 20.

“At noon, the prairie provinces of western Canada and stations on the west coast of the United States were rolling toward the northeastern United States. From 0222 to 2320 UTC, Es conditions deteriorated with increased background noise conditions until the last station in Golden Valley, Arizona was heard at 0037 UTC. It appears that the sporadic-E secondary winter season has started.

On December 19, Steve Sacco (who did not give a call sign) wrote this, regarding 10 meters:

“I have never seen so many KL7s at the same time. So far two have worked, plus VE8CK and VY1FC.

“PSKR showing the group open from my location to Europe and KL7 and JA and VK at 2215 UTC on December 19. JA3REX worked at 2217 UTC.

“If only that had happened last weekend!”

Jon, N0JK, wrote:

“I was over 6 meters using the MSK144 on the morning of December 14 at the height of the Geminid meteor shower. 50.260 MHz was busy. Worked WI9WI, WG0G and KF0Y in a rare DN92 grid around 1400 UTC. Every random contacts.

“Also checked 50.245 for W5A (EL15). Some flickering on the screen, but no decoding.

W8TJM of Liberty Lake, Wash., Commented on their 15-meter activity on December 19:

“As soon as I installed my 15-meter half-wave vertical antenna at my low noise site at 1915 UTC, I worked at OH6RM in Finland. He was S-5 – S7 with very little QSB, and we had a solid 25 minute QSO, and then I listened to his contacts intermittently for another hour. I also had a nice contact with Per, SM2LIY, at 1950 UTC and he was also S-5 – S-7 but had a very fast float on his signal which was consistent. I did not hear any European station.

Carl, K9LA, commented:

“The paths Toivo and Per commented on can be two different mechanisms depending on where the American station is located. I wrote about it (called ‘the Santa’s polar path‘) in my monthly column on my website in 2014.

Space weather woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, job a new forecast on December 23 with a 96 minute video.

The sunspot count from December 16 to 22 was 127, 119, 117, 109, 115, 147 and 137, with an average of 124.4. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 117.9, 120.9, 121.3, 115.3, 122.7, 136.6 and 140.4, with an average of 125. The estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 4, 12, 16, 10 and 11, with an average of 9.1. The middle latitude index A was 5, 2, 2, 8, 13, 7 and 8, with an average of 6.4.

For more information on radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the numbers mean …” and this spread page by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation diagrams, visit the VOACAP online for amateur radio website.

Instructions to start or end the e-mail distribution of ARRL newsletters are on the ARRL website.

To share your reports and observations.


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